Sunday, October 05, 2014

Nancy Lazar Interview: The U.S. Continues To Be A Driver Of Global Growth

In September of last years we provided some commentary and a link to an interview conducted by Consuelo Mack with Nancy Lazar on WealthTrack, Is Middle America The New Emerging Market? At that time Nancy Lazar stated the Middle America was the new emerging market. In an interview on WealthTrack last week with Nancy Lazar, she continues to highlight the strengths of the U.S. Nancy was a founding partner of ISI Group and recently started her own firm, Cornerstone Macro. She has been rated as a top economist by Institutional Investor magazine for the past decade.

Nancy Lazar notes that China, once thought of as the main growth driver for global growth, is now waning due to China unwinding past excesses. Nancy believes the U.S. has resumed the role of the leading growth driver for economic growth. She notes the U.S. is now growing faster than China in Dollar terms.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

A few other highlights from the interview which is worthwhile viewing in its entirety:
  • European growth is slowing and this will be a headwind for multinational U.S. companies since 20% of revenue is from Europe. The slowing in Europe is coupled with a stronger U.S. Dollar.
  • Lazar likes the U.S. consumer, i.e., discretionary sector, as the consumer has repaired their balance sheet and has become smarter in their spending habits. This is a bit of a double edged sword as consumers will be more discriminating on where they spend; however, she is projecting a strong holiday retail environment.
  • Chemical industry benefiting in the U.S. as the U.S. is the low cost producer for natural gas. Seven chemical plants under construction in the U.S. today and the build out of these plants runs through 2017.
  • As manufacturing in the U.S. expands, this is creating a multiplier effect in terms of jobs growth. For every one manufacturing job created, 3-4 non-manufacturing jobs are created as well.
In short, Lazar is positive on the U.S. and positive on the Dollar. She believes the U.S. economy is no longer in a crisis position and can stand on its won as the Fed steps away from its support.

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