Sunday, October 17, 2010

Third Quarter Investor Insight Newsletter

The S&P 500 Index ended up 8.9% for September and 11.3% for the third quarter. It was the market's best September since 1939. Ironically, this strong quarter was achieved in the face of mixed fundamental data. The Philadelphia Fed reported in August that 36 forecasters now see the economy looking less favorable than they thought just three months prior.

Third quarter GDP has been revised down to 2.3% from 3.3% (the second quarter was also revised down from 2.4% to 1.6%) and most economists agree the labor market shows little to no signs of improvement. One might assume historically low mortgage rates would stimulate the housing market but, in fact, housing inventories continue to rise and consumers continue to save and reduce debt. As an important aside, consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of the economy. However, we suspect economic data has presented just enough hope that a double dip recession is unlikely, hence, the bullish quarter.

View the complete Quarterly Investor Letter with market insights.

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