Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Retest The Low Or Onto New Highs?

Of course March 23 is not even a month in the rear-view mirror, but the S&P 500 Index is up over 23% since the low on that date. Some have commented the market will retest that market low before achieving new highs while others say the Fed's intervention minimizes the likelihood of a retest. As time moves further past the March 23 day, it seems "the no retest" chorus is sounding more probable. Because I have a bit of a contrarian tilt in my viewpoints, maybe the no retest sound bite means just the opposite?

In reviewing some technical data from the 2008/2009 financial crisis period, the monthly volume spike for March is near a spike leading into the market low in 2009. What is important to keep in mind is a lower low was made in that earlier period as volume spiked more after the initial sell off. 

Today's market environment does not need to play out exactly like the 2008/2009 time frame, but history has a tendency of rhyming. With a retest seeming less likely based on the recent market rebound alone, there are areas of the market and individual stocks that remain down significantly and look attractive today. Investors might want to use this time period to selectively add to positions where one's portfolio is underweight and where the return opportunities look attractive.

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