Monday, July 09, 2018

Summer 2018 Investor Letter: A Recession In 2020?

The economy is not the stock market and vice versa, but positive economic data tends to be supportive of a positive equity market environment. The current environment seems a bit like a Goldilocks one and that might be a cause of concern for some. If one is a writer for business publications it is difficult to find a great deal of negative news. To that end recent articles are focused on predicting a recession and end to the bull market in 2020. Predicting the end of the equity bull market a few years into the future is something of a stretch when economists and strategists are unable to accurately predict economic growth (GDP) for the next one or two quarters as highlighted in our Summer 2018 Investor Letter. Our current Letter comments on the hunt for bad news in spite of what seems like a strong underlying economy. We discuss issues that could derail the expansion, but the economic and market environment looks sound at this point in time.

For additional insight into our views for the market and economy in the coming year, see our Investor Letter accessible at the below link.


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