Saturday, April 22, 2017

Emerging Markets Poised To Outperform

In our Spring 2017 Investor Letter we briefly commented on first quarter investment changes we initiated in client accounts, specifically, adding exposure to emerging markets. Expanded commentary follows on some of the rational for this change. Simply because an asset class or stock is cheap does not necessarily suggest the asset should be purchased; however, valuation does tend to matter in the long run. The below chart was referenced in our Spring Investor Letter and the top pane of the chart shows the relative valuation of the MSCI Emerging Market Index versus the S&P 500 Index favors emerging markets.

Additionally, when comparing the forward earnings growth expectations for emerging market equities and S&P 500 equities, emerging market companies that comprise the MSCI Emerging Market Index are expected to grow earnings nearly three times faster then S&P 500 companies.

With respect to emerging markets, their prices seemed to be discounting the improvement taking place in global economies and the consequent benefit that should accrue to emerging market economies and thus emerging market stock prices themselves. Certainly, if global trade slows significantly, emerging market economies will be negatively impacted. However, our firm's view is developed economies will continue to grow over the next several years, even if at a below trend pace, and emerging economies will benefit. As the below chart shows, GDP growth in the emerging and developing economies has started to turn higher indicating a faster pace of economic growth than advanced or developed economies.

This faster pace of economic growth tends to persist over multiple years. As a result, some investors are beginning to recognize this as emerging market equity performance on a year to date basis is outperforming a number of developed markets as can be seen in the below chart.

This recent outperformance is occurring at a time when emerging markets have underperformed the U.S. market on a rolling 3-year annualized basis for the past five years. The second chart below shows the rolling 1-year returns versus the S&P 500 Index and the rolling 1-year returns have begun to favor emerging markets in 2017.

In investing, there are no certainties; however, with global economies seeming to become more synchronized with respect to economic growth, emerging markets could have a performance advantage over developed markets over the course of the next several years.

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