An interesting post has been published by Political Calculations noting the rise in the recession risk indicator. Additionally, the article notes other factors, specifically, dividend cuts, that are signaling increased risk of a recession in the U.S.
|From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors|
As noted in the post, The Reformed Broker's Joshua Brown states:
"Do you see the percentages on the left side of the chart? 20% is the line in the sand. We've never hit that level and NOT had a recession. In 2006 we got close (18%?) but that particular Great Recession would be a year and half in the making. Note that we're back at that 20% line again. And I can't think of anything that keeps the leading indicators from going through it to the upside - the Fiscal Cliff stuff could only speed its ascent"
H/T: Political Calculations