Monday, November 07, 2016

Election Day Is Finally Upon Us

In one day the S&P 500 Index recovered six of the nine days of losses incurred over the last two weeks. Today the S&P 500 Index recovered 46.34 points or 2.22% versus the 66.15 point loss (-3.07%) incurred from 10/25 through 11/4. Today's rally did not occur on exceptionally high volume, but the stochastic indicator has turned positive.

Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report made a couple of observations in his strategy note over the weekend.
  • Separate your politics from your portfolio as the combination of the two frequently proves unproductive and unprofitable.
  • If the market continues to decline after the election, it would do something we haven't seen in some time – namely that those selling into weakness have made the correct decision to do so. This market has consistently punished selling into weakness like we've seen of late so, if the market punishes those who haven't hedged, raised cash, and position more defensively, it would be the first sign that a top has been made for the market.
  • Kirk states, "My personal view is that the market will rally significantly no matter who wins the election. The way I think it will continue to go consistently down is in a contested type situation (like a Gore/Bush) which would continue this period of tremendous angst and uncertainty for markets worldwide. I could be wrong as I am often about such matters, but that’s my two cents worth"
Tomorrow is the election and recent market activity is suggesting continued volatility. LPL Research publish a post, What Happens Historically After Elections?, that is a worthwhile read for investors as election day is finally upon us.

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