Sunday, September 16, 2012

Dow's Recent Advance Below Average In Duration And Magnitude

Even with all the Fed's intervention and their attempt to force investors into risk assets, The Chart of the Day's recent market chart notes the current rally is both below average in duration and magnitude.

"The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 112 years are plotted on today's chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow -- with a rally being defined as an advance that followed a 15% correction (i.e. a major correction). As today's chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 28 times over the past 112 years which equates to an average of one rally every four years. Also, most major rallies (78%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% (29.8% to 150.5% to be exact) and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days (9.5 months to 3.2 years) -- highlighted in today's chart with a light blue shaded box. As it stands right now, the current Dow rally (hollow red dot labeled you are here) which began in October 2011 (since it followed a 16.8% correction), would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude."
From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors


1 comment :

Chester said...

So what is the take away regarding this fact?