More times than not, in a presidential election year the stock market has had better performance when the incumbent party wins. As noted in a recent T. Rowe Price report, "the S&P 500 Index has risen in 12 of the 16 election years since World War II. While that’s about the same percentage of all up years in that time, the index had an average gain of 9.2% when the incumbent party won and just 2.2% when it lost, according to Ned Davis Research." The report also notes that the market has declined in two of the last three presidential election years.
|From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors|
The Stock Market In Presidential Election Years (page 7)
T. Rowe Price Report