Saturday, May 02, 2009

Just A Bear Rally?

Could the market's recent advance simply be one of several bear rallies we can expect to experience in this secular bear market that began in 2000? As the below chart notes, the current rally in the Dow is shorter in duration and magnitude than the average 1929-1932 bear market rally.

It is not uncommon to have these bull runs in secular bear markets. Crestmont Research has a nice table of past secular bear and bull markets that detail the intermediate bull and bear periods within each cycle. Even in bear markets, such as in the bear market of 1966-1981, there were nine positive years that generated an average return of 13%. The entire 16 year period saw the market return -10% from the beginning to the end of the bear period.
Secular Bear Market Table
I noted in an earlier post today that investor cash now exceeds the value of assets invested in equities. So maybe this sideline cash is warranted and won't find its way into equities?

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