Patience Is A Virtue At This Point In The Cycle

The S&P 500 Index was able to hold together a bit of a rally today; however, the rally occurred on lower volume.

• The close today remains below the 50-day moving average.
• The stochastic indicator is in short term over bought territory.
• The market advance since August 16th has occurred on declining volume.

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Ten years from now it is likely this part of the market cycle will be barely visible on a long term market chart. On the other hand, many times the amount of money one makes is not based on the price at which an investment is sold, rather the price paid for the investment. Investors that purchased real estate last year are finding this out today.

Given the somewhat poor technical picture of the market, this doesn't mean there aren't some attractively valued stocks in the market right now. The point is one should be selective when making their investment decisions and only committing dollars that can remain in the market for the long term.

One issue that could negatively impact market sentiment is the liquidity events occurring in the asset backed commercial paper market. Asset backed commercial paper rates have spiked to levels over 6%. The liquidity concerns could cause the equity market to retest its recent low just above 1,400. This could be the event that causes the Fed to lower the Fed Funds rate and set off an equity market rally.

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Source: Federal Reserve

Bullish Investor Sentiment Declines as of 8.29.2007

The American Association of Individual Investors reported bullish investor sentiment declined for the period ending August 29, 2007. The level of bullishness equaled 40.30% versus the prior week's level of 41.28%. Those investors that were neither bullish or bearish (neutral) also declined. This resulted in an increase in bearishness to 46.27% versus last week's 43.12%. Consequently, the bull/bear spread widened to -6% from last week's -2%.

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Data Source: American Association of Individual Investors

Altria Group Increases Dividend 8.7%

Altria Group (MO) announced it was increasing the company's quarterly dividend by 8.7%. The new quarterly dividend will equal 75 cents per share versus 69 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Additionally, MO's board of directors announced the company would spin off its international business, Phillip Morris International, Inc., to MO shareholders. The details of the spin off will be determined at the company's next board meeting on January 30, 2008.

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Equity Markets Historically Weak In September

Historically, in a given year, the equity market incurs its weakest performance in the month of September. Many factors seem to be converging this September that may result in history repeating itself.

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Source: Chart of the Day

As detailed in the S&P 500 chart below, the index is not on the firmest technical footing.

Over the next 90 days more than half of the $1.1 trillion market value of commercial paper comes due. In a minority of cases, some company's that invested excess cash in commercial paper vehicles are having difficulty redeeming their investments.

In the Canadian market, the uranium company Cameco (NYSE ticker: CCJ) has C$13 million invested in asset-backed commercial paper held in two trusts: C$7.5 million in Apsley Trust, managed by Metcalf & Mansfield and C$5.5 million in Planet Trust, managed by Coventree Capital. Both matured on August 17, 2007, but neither counterparty has paid Cameco...The company has more than 20% of its 'portfolio' invested in these short term notes.

The other cloud forming over the market is the repricing of subprime mortgage debt.

Source: wikinvest: Subprime Lending

Today, the 1-year ARM rates inexplicably gapped higher. The rate jumped to 6.51% versus the prior week's 5.84%. If these shorter term mortgage rates remain elevated, it will likely place additional stress on subprime borrowers when their loan rate resets. All of this is having an impact on home sale/home construction market:

All the news is not bad though. Economically, the U.S. economy continues to grow at a non inflationary rate.

• The factory utilization rate is at a high level, but not at a level that would concern the Fed from an inflation perspective as noted in the charts below.

• GDP came in at 3.4% in the second quarter and the unemployment rate remains below 4%.

In a market environment such as this, higher quality 'dividend growth' equities can serves as a port in the potential storm.

Source:
Someone Else's Liability: Miners Caught Short In Treasury Game
CommodityOnline
August 23, 2007
http://www.commodityonline.com/newnews.php?id=2415

U.S.Economic Data: Weekly Chart Presentation
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/usdata.html#usshow

Dividend Aristocrats All Red Today: 8.28.2007

All of the Standard & Poor's Dividend Aristocrats generated a negative return today. At the end of the day, on a dollar weighted basis, the Aristocrats did outperform the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reported a return of a negative -.40%; thus, slightly beating the Aristocrat's portfolio return of a negative -.60%.

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Kentucky Versus Davis Supreme Court Case Hearing Nears

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case of Commonwealth of Kentucky v. Davis in its next session. A recent issue of Businessweek contained an article, Shaky Times For Munis, discussing potential fallout from the decision in the case. If a ruling goes against (uphold the lower court ruling) the Commonwealth of Kentucky, single state municipal bond funds will likely become obsolete. The impact on the price of municipal bonds will depend on how each state decides to treat taxation of in state and out of state municipal bonds.

"States will have the unenviable choice of either making all bonds tax exempt or all taxable, said Jay Abrams," chief municipal credit analyst at FMSbonds, a muni bond brokerage. "States will either have to relinquish the income they derive from out-of-state bonds or begin taxing state residents on the interest they earn from in-state-issued bonds."

As noted in the article, high tax state muni bond holders could be especially hard hit. The article notes:

A New York City investor in the highest federal and state tax brackets earning 4% on an in-state bond or bond fund is earning the equivalent of 7% on a taxable bond.

If the lower court ruling is upheld, the states will need to decide if they tax in state municipal bonds like out of state bonds are currently taxed. In the above example of the New York investor, that 4% now tax free rate would not look too good if it ultimately becomes subject to state taxation.

Related posts and links from this blog:

• Kentucky v. Davis: A Review of the Supreme Court Briefs
• Municipal Bond Investors: No Smooth Sailing Ahead
• High Court on Trash Flow
  

Source:
Shaky Times For Munis
BusinessWeek Magazine
September 3, 2007
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_36/b4048074.htm

Coachmen Industries: No Growth In This Dividend

When evaluating dividend paying stocks, the historical growth rate is as important as the fact the company pays a dividend. For Coachmen (COA) the dividend remained at 6 cents a share from the 3rd quarter of 2002 up through the 2nd quarter of 2006. The company then cut the dividend to 3 cents a share beginning with the 3rd quarter 2006 payment.

Today, Coachman announced it was suspending its dividend payments. An investor would have been wise to look at exiting the stock with the first announced cut as noted in the chart below.

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Stocks With Yields Of 5% or Higher In The S&P 500 Index

Sixteen stocks in the S&P 500 Index carry dividend yields of 5% or more. Some of these higher yielding stocks listed below have higher yields because they are REITs or REIT like companies that payout most of their income each year. Examples would be Developers Diversified Realty (DDR) and American Capital Strategies (ACAS).

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Source: indexArb

Dividends Do Matter

With the increase in market volatility over the last month, and mostly on the downside, dividend payers, on average, lost half as much as the non payers according to Standard and Poor's. S&P notes:

The dividend, to some extent, acts like an anchor, slowing the stock movement down since there is an actual cash payment. That means swings in these stocks prices, during both good times and bad, aren’t as dramatic as their non-dividend paying peers.

Standard & Poor's analysis looked at the payers versus the non payers going back to 1979 and they found:

• Payers did 2.24% better per year compounded than the non-payers.

• Translated from an initial investment of $10,000, non-payers would now be worth $262,237 vs. a worth of $451,458 for the payers, a difference of 72%.

• The difference between the payers and non payers is 2.24%, which is the dividend yield.

Source:
Payers Pay ($)
Standard & Poor's The Outlook
By: Howard Silverblatt and Beth Piskora
August 29, 2007
http://sandp.ecnext.com/coms2/page_outlook

Baby Boomers Inflate Real Estate Bubble?

Has the baby boomer generation contributed to the real estate bubble? You can be the judge in the charts below. It does appear single family home prices have broken an uptrend that has been in place since the early 1990's.

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Source: Chart of the Day

The U.S. Census Bureau published a report on population trends that contains a number of graphs detailing the shift in the baby boomers as they have aged.

If the boomers have contributed to real estate price inflation, it is important to answer the question of where will their impact be felt in the next decade or two.

• What type of stocks will they prefer in retirement?
• Will the demand for assisted living facilities increase?
• What will be the impact on government programs and taxes?

There are many more issues to be considered; however, understanding the shift in the baby boomer population will likely be critical in determining future investments. I wrote a recent post, Baby Boomers Might Impact The Equity Markets, that addresses some of these issues as well.

Source:
Age and Sex Distribution in 2005 (pdf)
U.S. Census Bureau
July 1, 2005
http://www.census.gov/population/pop-profile/dynamic/AgeSex.pdf

Bullish Investor Sentiment Declines Again

The level of bullish investor sentiment as reported by the American Association of Individual Investors declined further as of August 22, 2007. The bullishness level declined to 41.28% versus last week's level of 42.22%. However, the spread between bullishness and bearishness improved to a -2% versus last week's -3%. The spread narrowed as more investors moved to a neutral view on the market versus last week, 15.60% versus 12.22%. As noted in the graph below, the 8-period average continues to move higher since June 14, 2007

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Data Source: American Association of Individual Investors

Warren Buffett and Bridge

John Hussman of the Hussman Funds wrote a market comment late last year that explains, from Ben Graham's perspective, why Warren Buffett plays bridge. Ben Graham explains that playing bridge is like investing in that one must follow a discipline when investing or playing the card game bridge. An excerpt from the market comment:

Why bridge? Though Graham wasn't talking about Buffett at the time, he offers a clue:

"I recall to those of you who are bridge players the emphasis that bridge experts place on playing a hand right rather than on playing it successfully. Because, as you know, if you play it right you are going to make money and if you play it wrong you lose money – in the long run. There is a beautiful little story about the man who was the weaker bridge player of the husband-and-wife team. It seems he bid a grand slam, and at the end he said very triumphantly to his wife 'I saw you making faces at me all the time, but you notice I not only bid this grand slam but I made it. What can you say about that?' And his wife replied very dourly, 'If you had played it right you would have lost it.'"

It seems to me (and it has certainly been my experience) that it takes an enormous amount of restraint to focus on playing every investment hand "right," according to an established discipline, allowing the law of averages to work in your favor, rather than trying to win every hand. I would guess that this is exactly what appeals to Warren Buffett's temperament. Over the long-term, good investing requires it.

Source:
Why Warren Buffett Plays Bridge
Hussman Funds
By: John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
November 27, 2006
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc061127.htm

Wachovia Increases Dividend 14.3%

Wachovia (WB) announced it was increasing its quarterly dividend 14.3%. The new quarterly dividend increases to 64 cents per share versus 56 cents per share in the same quarter last year. Analyst estimates have WB's earnings growing from $4.91 in 2007 to $5.34 in 2008. This represents an 8.75% earnings growth rate.

It should be noted WB acquired Golden West Financial on October 1, 2006. Additionally, on March 31, 2007, WB announced the planned acquisition of A.G. Edwards (AGE).

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Picking Great Growth Stocks

As readers of my blog know, I favor higher quality dividend paying stocks. However, there are strong companies with strong cash rich balance sheets that warrant investment consideration. Ken Kobrick, formally of Wellington Management and State Street Research & Management, highlights four factors an investor needs to evaluate in selecting growth stocks. He terms these factors BSAM:

Business Model: How the company plans to grow, be profitable and protect itself from competitors.

Assumptions: The key assumptions the company makes about their markets upon which they then develop the business model.

Strategy: This is simply the plan the company develops to implement the business model.

Management: These are the actual people who create the great business models, assumptions, execution and all the rest. Great management is also needed, over time, to adjust business models for competitive situations.

At the end of this post is a link to the longer article comparing eBay to Google.

Source:
The Secrets of Picking Great Growth Stocks
AAII Commentary
By: Fred Kobrick
2007
http://www.aaii.com/includes/DisplayArticle.cfm?Article_Id=3172&digit=330

Bernanke's Policy Shift: Book Smart vs. Street Smart

The Fed's statement after the August 7th meeting indicated the primary concern was inflation's potential impact on the economy. In the week's leading up to the August 17th discount rate reduction, the Fed made a number of statements indicating the subprime issue was" contained". This was an indication the Fed felt the subprime problems would not impact the rest of the market and economy. On August 17th they essentially tore up the prior statement and conceded the subprime situation could have a longer term impact on future economic growth.

A recent Bloomberg article noted:

"It was a rookie mistake,'' said Kenneth Thomas, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in Philadelphia. The Fed "underestimated liquidity needs'' of investors and the fallout from the housing recession, he said, adding, "This demonstrates the difference between book-smart and street-smart." (emphasis added)

Many current Fed member's experiences are grounded in their academic backgrounds. The market does not always follow a particular model. Common sense and real world experience can go a long way in developing successful investment portfolios as well.

Source:
Bernanke's "Rookie" Mistake Forces Fed To Shift Focus To Market
Bloomberg.com
By: Craig Torres
August 20, 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amXgP4xSCOWU&refer=home

The Subprime Storm And What It May Mean For The Future Direction Of The Equity Markets

A recent commentary article by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, provides a good synopsis of the subprime issue and how this event has spread into other parts of the market. Interestingly, the article notes that the widening of high yield spreads and the spike in the VIX historically have been followed by higher stock prices. The high yield spikes have been less consistent indicators of future stock price performance versus the increased VIX.

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Source:
Inside the Subprime Storm
Charles Schwab
By: Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist
August 16, 2007
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/todays_market/recent_commentary/
inside_the_subprime_storm.html?cmsid=P-2009292&lvl1=research_strategies&lvl2=market_insight&refid=P-1923864&refpid=P-994220

Bullishness Declines And Spread Turns Negative

In the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey released today, bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 42.22%. The spread between bullishness and bearishness turned negative for the first time since June 14, 2007.

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Source: American Association of Individual Investors

Wikinvest

A new site similar to wikipedia has recently been established. The site is conveniently known as Wikinvest. The site is relatively new, however, the content appears to be growing fairly rapidly. The research and background information on companies and concepts seems more in depth than some of the traditional financial sites. The site, www.wikinvest.com, is worth checking out.

Fastest Growing Dividend Payers and High Yielding ETFs

Following is information on some of the faster growing dividend paying stocks and highyielding ETFs. Just because a company has a fast growing dividend doesn't necessarily mean the stock or company is a worthwhile investment. Many analyst had a buy rating (see the article "How Analyst Missed a Meltdown" on American Home Mortgage up until the company announced its financial difficulties. Investors should perform their own research before making any investment decisions.

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Stocks With Fastest Growing Dividend

Dividend Yielding ETFs


Source: Wall Street Journal

Dow Industrial Average At An Inflection Point

I am a firm believer that fundamentals of a stock or the market will be the determining factor in future performance. On the other hand, because enough market participants follow and trade on technical aspects of the market one must evaluate this type of data. Below is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the Fibonacci Retracement lines overlaid on the chart.

• the 50% retracement stands at 12,985. Today the Dow closed at 13,028. This 50% retracement level may act as support for the market, all else being equal.

• the 38.2% retracement line is at Dow 12,741.

• a full retracement puts the Dow at 11,939.

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The ten year Dow chart does remain in an uptrend as noted in the trend line analysis below. However, this shorter term trend is near breaking support at the same level as the 50% Fibonacci Retracement line.

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