Week Ahead Magazine: A Central Bank Throws In The Towel

Investors paying attention to the market last week witnessed something they may not see for the balance of their lives. The Swiss National Bank's surprise announcement that it would no longer try to maintain the Swiss Franc's currency peg resulted in the Franc/Euro exchange rate falling nearly 30% in a single day. In actuality, the collapse occurred within seconds of the announcement. This type of currency move speaks volumes about the unintended consequences of the quantitative easing programs being pursued by central banks around the world. Evercore ISI notes there have been forty easing moves by central banks around the globe in just the last three months. Investor should remain vigilant as they pursue investment opportunities in 2015.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

This week's Week Ahead magazine contains a number of links to articles discussing the implications of the Swiss National Bank's policy change. Additionally, a number of articles contain updated commentary about the state of the energy markets. Maybe $50/bbl is the new near term top in energy prices with further downside ahead. At the end of the day, these lower energy prices should translate to more of an economic benefit to consumers than the negative implications from reduced earnings from the energy sector. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• Week Ahead Magazine:  A Central Bank Throws In The Towel

Week Ahead Magazine: A Week Of Outlooks For 2015

Much of the focus in this week's magazine are links to various commentaries on the market and economic outlook for 2015. As one considers investment changes, the following quote might be appropriate in guiding potential changes.

“The riskiest moment is when you’re right. That’s when you’re in the most trouble, because you tend to overstay the good decisions. So, in many ways, it’s better not to be so right. That’s what diversification is for. It’s an explicit recognition of ignorance. And I view diversification not only as a survival strategy but as an aggressive strategy, because the next windfall might come from a surprising place.” Peter Bernstein

h/t: A Wealth of Common Sense

Below are a few links not contained in the magazine that readers may find of interest as well.

• Nuveen Investments 2015 Outlook:  World Economies Rebuild as U.S. Growth Strengthens
• Blackrock: Investment Directions 2015 Outlook
• BofA Merrill Lynch: Bull Market Slows to a Jog in 2015
• Goldman Sachs: Outlook 2015
• Charles Schwab: 2015 Market Outlook
• Fidelity Investments 2015 Stock Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Following is the link to this week's magazine.

• Week Ahead Magazine: A Week Of Outlooks For 2015

Week Ahead Magazine: The Last Week Of 2014

The day after Christmas saw the S&P 500 Index hit its 52^nd record close for the year. Of note this past week was the strong GDP report (third estimate) for the third quarter reported at 5%. This was higher than the 4.3% consensus estimate. A potential offset to the strength in the GDP report was the durable goods report for November. The consensus estimate was a 3.1% increase with the actual report showing a decline of .7% . Oil prices continue to be a focus and Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU, wrote an good article about the potential impact to various sectors of the market as a result of the decline in oil prices. A number of the articles in this week's magazine continues to highlight the issues surrounding hte energy sector. As a final note, the Stock Trader's Almanac Blog noted the following about the current market cycle.

• 2015 is a pre-presidential election year, the best year of the 4-year cycle. Since their last loss in 1939, the third year of the cycle is up 16.0% on average for the Dow and 16.3% for the S&P 500. Since 1971 NASDAQ averages a whopping 30.9% in the third year of the 4-year cycle.

• It is also the fifth year of the decade, which is also the best year of the decade with only one loss in the past thirteen decades. Years ending in “5” average 28.3% for the Dow and its predecessors since 1885, with S&P 500 averaging 25.3% since 1935 and NASDAQ averaging 25.6% since 1975.

• We are also now firmly in the sweet spot of the 4-year cycle (midterm Q4 & pre-election Q1-2). These best three quarters of the 4-year cycle have produce averaged gains of 21.5% for the Dow and 22.2% for the S&P 500 since 1950 and 34.1% for NASDAQ since 1974. 

With the market entering what has historically been a strong cycle period, the next magazine will likely focus on forecast for 2015 for what they are worth. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: The Last Week Of The Year

Week Ahead Magazine: The Factors Behind The Decline In Oil Prices

I suspect oil price movements will continue to garner many of the headlines during the coming week. During the past week, most of the economic reports were either positive or neutral.

• retail sales came in better than expected along with a spike higher in consumer sentiment.
• the release of the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index for November was the lowest since January 2014 which suggests a softening labor market.
• the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report was essentially unchanged for October (December report).
• inflation continues to remain in check at the producer level as the producer price index ex food and energy was flat for November. When food and energy is included, the headline PPI declined .2%.
• import prices continue to decline by dropping 1.5% in November. This decline in import prices has been a trend in place since the beginning of the year.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

This leads to expectations for the week ahead. One significant report for the week will be the FOMC meeting announcement on Wednesday. The market is expecting the Fed to remove/change the language in its statement regarding the timing of the next Fed rate increase. The current language indicates the hike will not occur for an "extended time." The market expects some change in this part of the Fed statement. As last week's reports on PPI, import prices and labor market conditions, it seems apparent inflation and the job market are not heating up. Given this information, and including the collapse in oil prices, a rate hike would seem to occur no sooner than mid year 2015. Other reports for the week that might be most impactful to the market are:

• industrial production (M)
• housing starts and flash manufacturing PMI (T)
• consumer price index and FOMC meeting announcement (W)
• jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Survey and Leading Indicators (Th)

A number of articles in this week's magazine look at the factors behind the fall in oil prices. As we have noted in several posts over the course of the past few weeks, we believe supply is only one factor driving prices lower. An article or two in the magazine note the impact that lower demand is having on oil prices as well. Broadly, this lower demand has implications for the strength of the global economy. For sure economic activity outside the U.S. has been slowing in many countries. For the moment the U.S. economy seems to have disconnected from the slowdown impacting the euro-zone and China, to name a few regions. A question then arise about the reality on what has once been a global synchronized growth story, if a globally connected world can truly operate on opposing economic cycles. Broadly, this is what the market may be trying to figure out, especially if one believes oil demand, or lack thereof, is also a cause for the drop in a price of oil. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: The Factors Behind The Decline In Oil Prices

Week Ahead Magazine: A Seasonally Favorable Period For Equities

Washington, D.C. will likely do its part in grabbing headlines this week due to a potential government shutdown starting December 12th. Congress has until December 11th to approve a government funding bill before recessing on the 12th. Investors should keep in mind any market gyrations around these shutdown periods is more emotional than fundamental as we noted in a post in October of 2013, Government Shutdown: Time To Buy Or Sell Stocks?

With this thought out of the way, as we look to the week ahead, a number of article links in this week's magazine highlight the seasonally strong period for the market at this time of year. Some of the articles look at this part of the calendar as the so-called "Santa Claus Rally", while other articles incorporate the strong 6th year of the Presidential Cycle. In any event, from a technical perspective this part of the calendar tends to favorable for equities. The decline in oil prices continues to dominate a few article links as well. The decline in oil prices is anticipated to put pressure on some of the marginal energy producers; thus, making them ripe for a takeover by the larger and better capital oil firms.

Lastly, the economic report calendar is fairly full with the following reports likely to have the most impact on the market. The most important report this week will be the retail sales report on Thursday.

• JOLTS and Wholesale Trade (T)
• EIA Petroleum Status Report (W)
• Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories and EIA Natural Gas report (Th)
• Producer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment (F)

Following is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: A Seasonally Favorable Period For Equities

Week Ahead Magazine: The ECB Pump

Last week was a mostly positive one for equity markets around the globe. The reason for all the optimism was unleashed on Friday when Mario Draghi indicated he was ready and willing to provide QE in an effort to stimulate growth in the euro zone. And not to be outdone, the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in its one year lending rate. These announcements moved equity prices higher on Friday and resulted in strong weekly gains for equities. For example, on the week, France's CAC Index was up 3.4%, Germany's DAX was up 5.2%, the S&P 500 Index was up 1.2% and the Dow was up 1.0%. The laggard continues to be U.S. small cap (Russel 2000 Index) which was down .1% for the week.

For the most part, economic reports in the U.S. were reported on the positive side of expectations. Housing reports were positive and one article link in the magazine notes the housing data provides strong confirmation that a U.S. recession is unlikely in 2015. The blog at the Stock Trader's Almanac notes one bullish indicator is when the S&P 500 Index is up double digits three year's in a row. Specifically, they note,

"As of the close yesterday, S&P 500 was up 11.1% year-to-date. Should these gains grow or at least remain intact through yea-rend, it would be just the fourth time in 84 years of S&P 500 data in which there have been three or more consecutive years of double-digit gains. In all past occurrences the year after the third year of double-digit gains was also up double-digits for an average gain of 23.1%."

This will be a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Important economic reports will be released during the week though.

• GDP for Q3 (second report), consumer confidence and Richmond Fed Mfg Index (T)
• Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and Personal Income and Outlays and New Home Sales (W)
• Chicago PMI (F)

For more insight into the coming week, below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: The ECB Pump

Week Ahead Magazine: Contrarian Investment Opportunities

Over the weekend Andrew Nyquist published an article on See It Market's website titled, Is The Nasdaq 100 Overheating? The article noted the sharp advance of the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2014 versus other U.S. focused indices as noted in the below chart from the article. The strong index performance can be partly attributed to the strength in Apple's stock as it comprises nearly 15% of the Nasdaq 100 Index.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Market commentary over the past week seems to be centered on the extended nature of the U.S. equity market and the possibility of an imminent correction. As we have noted, along with many others, the sentiment indicators seem decidedly bullish and they tend to be contrarian signals. Last week we noted the bullishness in the AAII individual investor sentiment survey while others have noted the extreme low in the Rydex Bear/Bull Ratio. As the first chart above notes, equity market strength has been centered in the larger cap U.S. markets (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average) Markets that are not hitting new highs on a seemingly daily basis are those outside the U.S. The below chart shows the lagging MSCI EAFE Index and the lagging NYSE Composite.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

I include the NYSE Composite for two reasons.

• the NYSE Composite is represented by 32% of the country weight being outside the U.S., and
• the technology weight in the index totals 4.9% versus 19.6% for the S&P 500 Index.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Data Source: NYSE

At HORAN we still maintain a positive view on U.S. equity markets. However, the lagging nature of markets outside the U.S. and lower valuations are presenting investors with potential investment opportunities if they believe the U.S. market is extended. If an investor desires to maintain exposure in the U.S., there are sectors that have lagged the broader market as well, for example, energy and materials, just to name a couple. It is difficult to time the market, but foreign oportunities are beginnig to look interesting if one's time horizon is three to five years out.

Some of the article links in the Week Ahead Magazine below look at potential contrarian investment opportunities.

• Week Ahead Magazine: Contrarian Investment Opportunities

Week Ahead Magazine: The Presidential Election Cycle

With the mid-term elections in the U.S. over, the market can focus on the fundamental underpinnings of the economy. Technically, however, the presidential election cycle and the election outcome are suggestive of a positive period for equities. According to Ed Yardeni, Ph.D of Yardeni Research,

• "...since 1942, the S&P 500 rose on average by 8.5% for the subsequent three-month periods, 15.0% for six months, and 15.6% for 12 months. There was only one out of the 45 periods that was down, and just for three months! One has to go back to Depression-era market losses to find two periods when this indicator did not give consistently positive results."

• "...using daily data [sine 1928] for the S&P 500. The average gain for the third years of presidential terms was 13.4%, well ahead of the averages for the first (5.2%), second (4.5), and fourth years (5.5). Of the 21 third years, only two of them were down during the Great Depression. The 22 first years and 21 second years each included 10 downers. The 21 fourth years included six negative ones."

Several additional article links highlight the positive equity market returns at this point in the election cycle. The below chart shows the next three calender quarters as the most positive across the complete presidential election cycle.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Source: The Fat Pitch

Maybe confounding investors is the mixed nature of the economic reports in the U.S. and the not so strong reports outside the U.S. This continues the bump along growth environment we believe the global economy will continue to experience in the quarters ahead; thus, giving rise to the proverbial "climb a wall of worry" market.

Economic reports for the week are not heavy; however, a couple of potential market moving reports are,

• jobless claims and the JOLTS report (Th)
• retail sales, consumer sentiment and business inventories (F)

Lastly, several article links in the magazine highlight the fact the market seems overbought.  With the market at new highs and elevated investor sentiment, it is easy to conclude the market is due for a pullback. On the other hand, it is noted that sentiment data is most predictive at bearish extremes versus bullish extremes. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: The Presidential Election Cycle

Week Ahead Magazine: A Bullish Period For Equities

Investors enjoyed a sharp recovery in equity prices last week. The major U.S. indexes were higher by 2.7% to nearly 5% for the small cap Russell 2000 Index. The small cap return pulled the index into positive territory for the year: up .8%. This week investors will digest a large number of earnings reports, but the short term focus may be the mid-term election on Tuesday. This week's magazine includes a number of articles that focus on equity market returns around the mid-term election cycle. In short, seasonally, the market is entering one of its strongest return periods out of the four year presidential cycle. The chart below is taken from Ed Yardini's blog and it speaks for itself.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Source: Dr. Ed's Blog

Lastly, the monthly Mutual Fund Observer is a must read for investors and the November 1st report does not disappoint readers. One section of the report notes the weak cumulative returns investors have realized in the past two market cycles if one includes the bear market returns in the calculation. From a positive perspective, the bull markets in the 1980's and 1990's saw significantly better returns than in the past two cycles. Just hoping for a more sustainable bull cycle want will it to be so; however, it does seem we are overdue for a longer and more significant bull run versus what has been experienced in the prior two market cycles.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Source: Mutual Fund Observer

More detail on the seasonal market cycles can be found in some of the links in the Week Ahead Magazine below:

• The Week Ahead Magazine: A Bullish Period For Equities

Week Ahead Magazine: How Quickly Sentiment Changes

At the start of this past week it seemed the bears were out in force and it led to selling pressure on the indices through Wednesday. However, trading on Wednesday may have been a capitulation day as the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial average were down nearly 3% from their respective day's high and low. The market turnaround carried through to the week's end. The only index managing to gain on the week though was the small cap Russell 2000 index which was up 2.8%. Small caps have struggled since late last year and remain down 7.0% year to date.

A number of articles in this week's magazine focus on the change in investor sentiment from bearish to more bullish. Ben Carlson, CFA, who writes for A Wealth of Common Sense, referenced a financial advice quote from Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal that sums up what investors should be thinking in these volatile times.

"I was once asked, at a journalism conference, how I defined my job. I said: My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself."

"That’s because good advice rarely changes, while markets change constantly. The temptation to pander is almost irresistible. And while people need good advice, what they want is advice that sounds good."

Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: How Quickly Sentiment Changes

Week Ahead Magazine: Equity Market Entering Seasonally Strong Period

Last week included two trading days to end the third quarter and three trading days to start the fourth quarter of 2014. In total the week was one where nearly all U.S. and international indices ended in the red. From a positive perspective strength was seen in U.S. markets after mid day on Thursday and this carried over into Friday. For the week though, the Russell 2000 index continues to struggle to find support and was down 1.3% and is now down 5.1% year to date. The other major U.S. indices were down .6 to .8% on the week. Overseas saw braod weakness as well:

• the DAX (Germany) down 3.1%,
• the CAC (France) down 2.6,
• the Nikkei 225 (Japan) down 3.2%, and
• the Kospi (South Korea) down 2.7%.

In spite of the weakness ending the third quarter and at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the market is entering a seasonally strong period.  A number of reports, one included in this week's magazine, note in a midterm election year October is the strongest month on average for the S&P 500 Index. This October market strength carries over into the full fourth quarter through the second quarter of year three of the presidential cycle. History is not a guaranty of future outcomes; however, the future does have a tendency to rhyme.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Source: Dana Lyons

For the week ahead, the economic reporting will be light. Below is a list of the economic data to be reported in the coming week.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Source: Thomson Reuters

Following is the link to this week's Week Ahead Magazine.

• Week Ahead Magazine: October 5, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: Fear Headlines - September 28, 2014

After reading some of the market headlines last week, one would have thought the market experienced some type of terrible correction. A couple of headlines from CNBC that are shown below mention the market "springs back after rout" and market "sinks, fear surges." For the week, the S&P 500 Index was down 1.4% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined only 1%.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

On Thursday, September 18, 2014, the S&P 500 Index hit a closing high of 2,011.36. So, after this past Thursday's market decline, the S&P 500 Index was down 2.26% and ultimately closed the week down only 1.42% from its high. I do not call this a "rout" or a market that "sinks."

Of course, the market seems overdue for a 10+ percent correction, but that does not mean one is around the corner. For the DJIA the last one occurred almost three years ago with the market low in October, 2011. As we noted earlier in the year the market seemed to experience an internal correction when social media and biotech stocks declined sharply in March and April. In the current third quarter it seems a similar situation is occurring as noted by the correction in some market segments. Additionally, a number of energy stocks and industrial stocks have experienced greater than 10% declines in the quarter.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Lastly, in reviewing a couple of technical aspects for the market, the S&P 500 Index, it remains firmly in an uptrend as noted by the green support line in the below chart. Certainly, some technical damage has been inflicted on the market in last week's minor pullback. The market has violated its 50-day moving average and the percent price oscillator (a version of the MACD) is in a negative downtrend as well. From a positive standpoint, the stochastic indicator appears to be turning higher and a positive turn in the PPO would be beneficial. Lastly, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50 day and 150 day moving averages are near oversold levels. The market may find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of S&P 1,960.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

Before looking at the week ahead, the economic news last week can be summarized as mixed. Probably the most noteworthy news items had to do with data out of Europe and China. The manufacturing and services sector PMIs for the eurozone dipped to their lowest levels of the year and China existing home sales declined. Potentially offsetting these concerns is the strengthening U.S. Dollar and the resulting impact of making foreign goods cheaper as they are exported to the U.S.

The coming week is loaded with a number of important economic reports.

• Personal income and outlays, pending home sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (M)
• Chicago PMI and consumer confidence (T)
• ADP employment report, PMI Mfg index, ISM mfg index and construction spending (W)
• Jobless claims and factory orders (Th)
• Employment situation, international trade report, ISM non-mfg index, global composite PMI and global services PMI (F)

For the week ahead magazine below, a number of links look at recent buyback activity as well as the performance of various market sectors. With a number of individual stocks experiencing significant corrections, one link reviews the fact some stocks just do not mean revert as investors might think. In short, just because a stock looks cheap, it does not mean it will generate market beating returns. And finally, it has been difficult gauging a great deal of insight into investor market behavior based on their sentiment as it has not been overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. The Gallup article link notes that the "U.S. Investor Optimism Index is at its highest level in Seven Years. This index is officially know as  the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index. I have not reviewed the questions/data closely; however, the index had prior peaks in 2000 and 2007, both market tops. The current index level, though, is far below the 2007 peak.

• Week Ahead Magazine: September 28, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: September 21, 2014

A fairly eventful week last week with the Fed's policy decision essentially leaving rates unchanged and retaining the "considerable time" language in its rate announcement. Alibaba's (BABA) IPO was one for the record books in terms of size. Before investors jump in to buy the stock they should read Aswath Damodaran's commentary on the corporate structure of BABA. With those two items now in the rear-view mirror, the market managed to generate mostly positive returns last week. The one segment of the market having trouble gaining any upward traction is small cap stocks. On the week the Russell 2000 small cap index was down 1.2% and now is down 1.4% on the year. The other broad U.S. indices have generated near double digit returns year to date. The one large cap laggard is the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is up 4.2%.

For the week ahead, a number of economic reports are on the calendar:

• Existing home sales (M)
• New home sales (W)
• Durable goods orders, and jobless claims (Th)
• Second quarter GDP final reading (F)

A number of additional reports will be reported in the coming week, but those noted above are likely to be the most impactful to the markets. This week's magazine contains an assortment of articles readers may find of interest.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: September 21, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: September 14, 2014

Although much of the economic news last week came in on the positive side, the major U.S. indices were unable to move to the upside. As we noted in our earlier post today, September And Beyond, investors seem focused on the Fed meeting this week and the Fed's viewpoint on the economy and timing of interest rate increases. In spite of the market pullback last week, the S&P 500 Index is down only 1.1% from the high reached on September 5th.

Potential market moving economic news in the coming week:

• Industrial production (M)
• Producer Price Index (T)
• Consumer Price Index, FOMC Announcement (W)
• Housing starts, jobless claims and Philly Fed Survey (Th)
• Leading Indicators (F)

Given the potential shift on interest rate policy from the Fed, a number of article links in this week's magazine look at the frequency of stocks and bonds declining simultaneously--and it is not a frequent occurrence. Another article link evaluates the markets' performance during mid-term election cycles as well as the pre-election year. Lastly, several articles look at projected economic growth along with corporate actions around dividends and stock buybacks. Below is the link to the coming week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: September 14, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: September 7, 2014

Last week's holiday shortened trading saw fractional gains in most major U.S equity indexes except for the small cap Russell 200 Index. The small cap index declined .4% on the week and only remains up .6% for the year. Small caps continue to lag the broader S&P 500 Index which is higher by 8.6% year to date through Friday's close. The one piece of weak economic news reported last week was the +142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. The consensus estimate prior to the release was an anticipated increase of 230,000. The market seemed to shake off this miss as the month of August tends to be a particular month that is frequently revised.

The coming week will be light on potential market moving economic reports. Jobless claims will be reported Thursday and retail sales will be reported on Friday. Given the importance of the consumer on GDP, the retail report will be watched closely. The magazine link below includes an article by  Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab highlights sentiment data, GDP component changes from Q1 to Q2 and a number of additional pros and cons on recent economic data.

Lastly, the U.S. market has managed to dismiss geopolitical events around the globe. An event that will take place on September 18th is the Scottish referendum to separate from the United Kingdom. A couple of articles in the magazine touch on the potential significance if the referendum is approved by the Scottish citizens.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: September 7, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: August 31, 2014

The strong equity returns in the just completed month of August prove historical expectations do not always play out as the data might suggest. As we noted in our post just before August began, Is This The Much Awaited Market Pullback?, the average August return for the past 10 years has been negative.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

With the strong August returns several market pundits are reiterating their often repeated call for a major market correction. A correction would not surprise us, but we do not see the 30 - 60% that is predicted by some investment managers. Several article links in this week's magazine provide insight into these repeated correction calls; one by Barry Ritholtz on David Tice's correction call and the other by Larry Swedroe covering John Hussman's bear market point of view.

The coming week is a holiday shortened one with a number of important economic reports. Most watched will be the data surrounding employment. Jobless claims will be reported on Thursday and the employment situation report will be released on Friday. The employment data is getting closer scrutiny as Janet Yellen has noted the labor market is weaker than it should be. Econoday notes, the employment report likely will play a key role in the next round of Fed forecasts for the economy, posted with the September 17 FOMC statement."The key question is when will the Fed begin to raise rates.

Making up for the light article links from last week, the Monday holiday allowed for me to include a few more articles that might be of interest for the coming week. Below is the link for this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: August 31, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: August 24, 2014

This past week saw the S&P 500 Index set a record closing price of 1,992.37 on Thursday. One article in this week's magazine notes the equity market has gone over 1,020 days without a 10% correction. Investors seem content on buying market "dips". This most recent dip saw the market decline 3.94% from its July 24th closing price down to 1,909.57 on August 7th. The "V-shaped" recovery from August 7th has seen the market advance 4.3% to Friday's close.

From The Blog of HORAN Capital Advisors

The only major U.S. index that remains negative for the year is the small cap Russell 2000 Index which is down .3%. The leader is the Nasdaq composite index which is up 8.7% followed by the S&P 500 Index, up 7.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains the laggard and is up 2.6% on the year.

Much of the focus this past week was on Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole presentation. The comments had little market impact with treasury yields rising just slightly across most of the interest rate curve. Most of the economic news last week was fairly positive. As we noted in our earlier post today, manufacturing, leading indicator data and jobs data seem to be supportive of a positive economic climate looking out to year end. From an international perspective, economic data remains mixed and saw weakening in most area's Purchasing Managers Indices.

A number of economic data releases are scheduled to be reported this week. Some of the potential market moving reports are:

• New home sales (M)
• Durable Goods Orders (T)
• GDP and jobless claims (Th)
• Personal Income and Outlays (F)

The magazine as well as blog posting has been lighter this week as we were visiting out of town clients during the first half of the week. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: August 24, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine For August 17, 2014

After the market's close this past Tuesday we wrote a post discussing how the market technicals had turned more positive and the market did not disappoint. For this past week the equity market did turn higher with the major U.S. indices posting weekly gains. The standout was the Nasdaq Composite Index returning 2.2% and now up 6.9% on the year. The much watched small cap index, the Russell 2000, managed to generate a gain of .9%; however, the index remains down 1.9% year to date. Last week's news was dominated by geopolitical issues, e.g., the Ukraine/Russia conflict. The issues taking place on the European continent seem to be impacting economic and consumer sentiment in the Euro Zone. As Econoday noted in their weekly recap,

"Numbers for second quarter GDP for France, Germany, and the EU fell below expectations—including a negative number for German GDP, largely damped by Ukraine concern. It was more current news that lifted stocks after President Vladimir Putin said Russia will work to stop the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Equities were mixed Friday on a report that Ukraine government forces attacked an armed convoy from Russia—allegedly carrying humanitarian aid."

The highlight for this week may be commentary from the Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole. This event has taken place since 1978 and this year's topic will be "Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics." In the interim, potential market moving economic reports for the coming week include:

• Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts (M)
• FOMC Minutes (W)
• Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Survey and Existing Homes Sales (Th)

Articles of interest can be found in this week's magazine with the link provided below.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: August 17, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine For August 10, 2014

Last week saw the market's trading action gravitate from positive to negative during the week until Friday. The chart to the right shows the daily changes in various market indices with Friday's sharp bounce back. A question for this week will be whether last Friday's trading bounce signals a bottom in the market's recent decline.

Today pre-market futures are indicating a positive start to the trading week. This comes on the heals of positive market performance in global markets on Monday. One article link in the Week Ahead Magazine covers some technical data that is suggestive of a potential market bottom. Additionally, another article notes the decline in investor bullish sentiment, as well as investors continued appetite for bonds. Below is the link to this week's magazine.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: August 10, 2014

Week Ahead Magazine: August 3, 2014

With July in the books, investors experienced the negatives of what tends to be a weak seasonal period for the equity markets. The worst performing segment of the U.S. market continued to be the pullback in small company stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 index. Small caps declined 7.3% in July while the larger cap stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index fell 2.8%. Small caps are now down 4.2% year to date while the S&P 500 Index remains higher by 4.2%.

For the most part economic news this past week was positive. Probably the most positive report was the first read on second quarter real GDP that was reported at 4.0%. For many, including us at HORAN Capital Advisors, there seems to have been a bounce back in economic activity from the weakness experienced in the first quarter due to the extreme cold weather conditions across the U.S. at that time. We do expect, however, this snap back was not significant enough to expect this level of growth through the balance of the year. One article in our magazine covers some of the underlying concerns with the recent GDP report.

Lastly, economic reports for the coming week will be relatively light. Additionally, the pace of earnings reports slows with a number of the reports coming from companies less optimistic about growth prospects. As we have noted in several reports on our blog this week, much technical damage was done to the market this past week. The magazine highlights several indicators that indicate the market is at least oversold on a short term basis which could result in a market bounce this week. The key will be whether or not the bounce can carry forward to a continuation of this bull market.

• The Week Ahead Magazine: August 3, 2014