Monday, June 14, 2010

Contrarian Signs That Bull Market Phase Approaching

Media headlines are now proclaiming that Dow 10,000 is a barrier that may not be surpassed for several years to come. The cover of Bloomberg's June 14th Businessweek magazine features a bear with the article lead in:
"The bearish forecasters who rose to fame in the market crash of 2008 have, for the most part, not surrendered their pessimism. Their moment could be coming back around..."

Last week an issue of the Wall Street Journal featured an article titled, The 11-Year Itch: Still Stuck at Dow 10000, that was written by Jason Zweig. In that article it noted:
"Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 10000—again. Since March 16, 1999, when it first touched 10000 in intraday trading, the Dow has bounced over that threshold and back 63 times. This Friday (6/11/10), the index closed 219.6 points below where it stood exactly 11 years ago."
As the WSJ article notes, the Dow hit 1,000 for the first time in January 1966 and did not convincingly close above that level until December 1982. In November of 1963, with the Dow at 740, Ben Graham said:
"in my nearly 50 years of experience in Wall Street, I've found that I know less and less about what the stock market is going to do but I know more and more about what investors ought to do."
At the end of the day, one will not see the bull market coming, but all the bear market talk tends to be an indicator of a better market environment in the not too distant future.

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